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Grocery prices in the United States have gone down

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by Newbie (410 points)

31 Answers

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ago by Newbie (300 points)

1. Overall Summary of Findings

This claim is false. Grocery store (food-at-home) prices in the U.S. have not gone down overall. They are still rising year-over-year, though the rate of increase has slowed significantly from recent peaks. So while some individual item prices may fall, groceries broadly are still more expensive than a year ago.

2. Primary Sources

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — “Food at home” index: The index increased by 2.7% over the 12 months ending September 2025. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2

  • United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) “Food Price Outlook”: Reports food-at-home prices are projected to increase ~2.4% in 2025, not decrease. Economic Research Service

  • Federal Reserve FRED data: The CPI for “Food at Home” in U.S. City Average shows the index rising from ~312.659 in July 2025 to ~315.489 in September 2025. FRED

3. Secondary Sources

  • Restaurant Economic Insights (via National Restaurant Association) – “Menu Prices” article: States grocery prices (food at home) rose 0.3% in September and 2.7% year-over-year — clearly not a decrease. NRA

  • Time Magazine – “Here’s Why So Many Grocery Store Staples Are So Expensive” (2023) – Gives background on how grocery prices surged and why many items remain elevated. TIME

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