Factcheck this: A Solar Cycle peak is probable cause for more heat this summer

Question

Answer 1

While it seems that we are currently in a solar maximum, it doesn't seem to be why it is so hot. It looks like global warming is more likely the reason why it has been getting hotter, as it says on NASA's official website

https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

Answer 2

It is true that we are currently in solar maximum, and solar irradiance is closely correlated with surface temperatures on earth. According to Nasa, the sun undergoes a cycle every 11 years, in which the amount of solar irradiance on earth shifts by 1-1.5 watts per square meter between peak and valley, which accounts for about a 0.2-0.3 degrees celcius change in surface temperature. So this summer may be a little bit hotter than the last summer, but will be 0.2-0.3 degrees C hotter than summers 11 years ago. Again this is just on a planetary scale, the shift from El Niño to La Niña this summer will likely cause the next few years to be cooler than the last few for North America. Human caused climate change, resulting from the release of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere has also caused about 1degrees C of heating over the last 100 years. In conclusion that claim that the solar peak will cause this summer to be hotter than one's 10 years ago is mostly true, the claim that this summer will be much hotter than last years is exaggerated/missleading, and the claim that the solar cycle is in fact responsible for the measured increase in temperature over that last 100 years, commonly referred to global warming is liar liar pants on fire false.

Sources: https://science.nasa.gov/resource/graphic-temperature-vs-solar-activity/

https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-update-predicts-60-chance-of-la-nina#:~:text=Latest%20forecasts%20from%20WMO%20Global,conditions%20during%20September%2DNovember%202024.

Answer 3

Interestingly, solar maximums don't significantly directly affect temperature! Solar maximums and flares' biggest risk is geomagnetic storms that can interfere with power grids and communications technology. This being said, according to NOAA, the change in temperature is barely noticeable: "solar activity does in fact warm the Earth by about a tenth of a degree (0.1° C) during solar maximum relative to solar minimum". NASA has actually pointed out a larger trend of the stratosphere cooling as of 2020, meanwhile there was a measurable spike in average temperature at the same time - showing that the temperature and the sun aren't that linked.  

Sources:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-impacts-climate

https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/heliophysics/nasa-noaa-sun-reaches-maximum-phase-in-11-year-solar-cycle/

https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/faq/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

Answer 4

While the sun is going to be active throughout these times, that is not the probable cause for more heat this summer. So, while this claim is somewhat true, it is not completely true with every claim it is trying to make. According to Nasa, the sun undergoes a cycle every 11 years, which accounts for the 'awakening' of the sun. While this does contribute to some warmth, it does not account for the amount of climate change that is being experienced at the moment. 

sources: https://science.nasa.gov/resource/graphic-temperature-vs-solar-activity/