Question

Grocery prices in the United States have gone down

Answer 1

1. Overall Summary of Findings

This claim is false. Grocery store (food-at-home) prices in the U.S. have not gone down overall. They are still rising year-over-year, though the rate of increase has slowed significantly from recent peaks. So while some individual item prices may fall, groceries broadly are still more expensive than a year ago.

---

2. Primary Sources

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — “Food at home” index: The index increased by 2.7% over the 12 months ending September 2025. Bureau of Labor Statistics+2Bureau of Labor Statistics+2

• United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA ERS) “Food Price Outlook”: Reports food-at-home prices are projected to increase ~2.4% in 2025, not decrease. Economic Research Service

• Federal Reserve FRED data: The CPI for “Food at Home” in U.S. City Average shows the index rising from ~312.659 in July 2025 to ~315.489 in September 2025. FRED

---

3. Secondary Sources

• Restaurant Economic Insights (via National Restaurant Association) – “Menu Prices” article: States grocery prices (food at home) rose 0.3% in September and 2.7% year-over-year — clearly not a decrease. NRA

• Time Magazine – “Here’s Why So Many Grocery Store Staples Are So Expensive” (2023) – Gives background on how grocery prices surged and why many items remain elevated. TIME

---

Answer 2

As much as I'd love for this to be true, the opposite seems to be true. The primary reason grocery prices would have gone down would have been some kind of change the Trump Administration has made. At least that's the primary argument and claim that Trump made. As seen on MSN Trump proclaims grocery prices 'rapidly down' as food costs hit 3-year high. When in reality, studies around the country are showing a steady increase in grocery prices since the beginning of this administration. Studies include the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' average price data on common groceries. Average price data (in U.S. dollars), selected items. As well as the CBS news price tracker for this year. CBS News price tracker shows how much food, gas, utility and housing costs are rising - CBS News. Of course, individual chains and local food marketers will likely not have seen such a drastic change. However, larger chains such as Walmart and PepsiCo have been given the opportunity to use Inflation techniques because of this wave. How Walmart And Pepsico Rigged Prices And Supercharged Food Inflation. Overall, there are clear signs of grocery price increases since the Trump Administration, and different chains are taking advantage of this change to increase prices even further. Thus, this claim is False.

Answer 3

Unfortunately, this claim seems to be false. Though recently (as of 12/06/25), Donald Trump has signed an executive order to "stop price fixing, anti-competitive behavior, and foreign influence that drives up grocery prices and threatens the security of America’s food supply." (White House), food prices have risen. According to the USDA Economic Research Service, the grocery store CPI (consumer price index) increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was 2.7 percent higher than in August 2024. The USDA's Food Price Outlook actively negates your claim- in fact, it argues the opposite, with special emphasis on the rise of prices of beef, veal, and egg prices. In 2026, prices for all food are predicted to increase 2.7 percent, further disproving your claim that grocery prices have gone down.

Sources: 

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/12/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-security-risks-from-price-fixing-and-anti-competitive-behavior-in-the-food-supply-chain/

Answer 4

The claim states that grocery prices in the United States have gone down. To verify this, I looked at data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index and reporting from Reuters and the Associated Press. Inflation caused food prices to increase sharply during 2022 and 2023, according to a report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But during 2024, inflation has moderated, and a slight decrease or slowdown in price increase has been noticed for some food categories, although most food prices are still substantially higher than before the inflation era, as stated in a report published by Reuters, with reduced food inflation, but food prices substantially higher than before the pandemic, which means that people are now paying a higher price than before. But this is misleading. Grocery price inflation has cooled, and some items have slightly lowered in price, but overall, the United States' grocery prices have just not "gone down" in any meaningful way from previous years. Prices still remain far higher than pre-inflation levels, meaning most consumers are not experiencing cheaper groceries.

Answer 5

This claim isn’t true. According to NPR, grocery prices saw “the biggest jump in almost three years” in August 2025, and families are really feeling it. Many people are worried about being able to afford food, and even big stores like Krogerhave noticed changes in how people shop—customers are making smaller, more frequent trips, using more coupons, and choosing cheaper store-brand products. Some items, like bread and eggs, have gone down in price a little, but most groceries are still rising fast, so the overall trend is definitely up.
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation

CNN reported in August 2025 that more than half of Americans are stressed about food costs, according to a poll by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. About 53% said groceries are a major stress, 33% said minor stress, and only 14% said it isn’t stressful at all. So most people are definitely noticing the rising prices. It’s true that inflation has gone down a bit since its 2022 peak, and groceries increased only 2.4% in the year ending in June. But saying prices are going down flat out is wrong—most families still feel the pinch and are struggling to pay for basics.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/business/grocery-prices-trump-poll

Overall, grocery prices aren’t falling like the claim says. Even if some things have gotten a little cheaper, the reality is that most Americans are still dealing with higher costs and worrying about making ends meet.

Answer 6

Think of this as your investigation log. Answer each question to explain what you discovered and how you got there.

1. Write a brief overall summary of your findings.

All available information disproves this. Tariffs have had an inverse reaction and have caused prices to go up.
2. What primary sources did you find (e.g., transcripts, videos of politician speeches, tweets from public figures, scientific studies)? For each source, write at least one or two sentences explaining what you learned. Include all links.

I used U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to see if the claim was true. Their data showed that it was not true and that food prices have gone up in 2025. The source I used showed me that almost everything has gone up in prices since 2024.
3. What secondary sources did you find (e.g., newspapers, magazines)? Only use secondary sources if sufficient primary sources are not available. For each source, write at least one or two sentences explaining what you learned. Include all links.

These Foods Expected To See Biggest Price Increases This Year, USDA Says

I used the following source to further prove that food prices have gone up. The source also says eating out will get more expensive as well. 
4. What potential biases or interests might each of your sources have?

My main source is a government ran website and can be subject to misinterpreted data depending on if they want to have a political party look bad or good. 
5. What evidence supports the claim you are fact-checking?

The source uses data from the previous year to provide context support to their claim that food prices have gone up. 
6. What evidence undermines the claim you are fact-checking?

The source I am using does not differentiate the foods but instead puts them in categories. That can effect the data and provide inaccurate data.  
7. What happened when you tried contacting the person or group who made the original claim? (Always try to contact them—it’s okay if you don’t get a reply. For example, if the claim is that the president said something, try reaching out to the administration. If it was a Bluesky user, message that user on Bluesky.)