I looked at 3 separate articles; there does appear to be evidence that China is expanding and modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, it is estimated that China may now possess 600 nuclear warheads (SIPRI), which is a jump from the previously recorded 550 in 2022 (Wikipedia Contributors). Projections consistently estimate that China could reach 1000 warheads by 2030 and potentially 1500 in 2035 (Kuramitsu). In addition to growth in its arsenal, there is also evidence of expanded missile silo construction, submarine development, and increased fissile material production capacity (meaning having the infrastructure to create the radioactive materials needed for nuclear arms, such as Uranium-235 and Plutonium-239) (Buckley and Chang).
There is also evidence that China’s nuclear posture may be shifting, not just the number of warheads it possesses. Some defense assessments suggest China is moving toward a launch-on-warning capability, which would allow it to respond to a detected incoming strike more quickly than in the past. Historically, China kept most warheads stored separately from missiles, so an increase in readiness would represent a meaningful operational change. (Kuramitsu)
In addition, China is modernizing its delivery systems. Reports describe large-scale construction of new intercontinental ballistic missile silos and the development of next-generation ballistic missile submarines capable of carrying multiple independently targetable warheads. These upgrades suggest a more advanced and diversified nuclear triad. (Buckley and Chang)
China has also expanded its fissile material production capacity, including fast breeder reactor development, which could support long-term warhead growth. While Chinese officials maintain that their strategy remains defensive and based on minimum deterrence, the scale and pace of infrastructure development indicate a sustained and significant modernization effort. (Kuramitsu)
One quote that summarized things well, however, was this one:
“..I think without a real dialogue on these topics, which we lack, it’s really hard to say where it’s going, and that, for me, is dangerous,” he said, “because now we’re forced to react and plan around the worst-case interpretation of a concerning trend line.” (Buckley and Chang)
It highlights that, while there is substantial evidence that leads me to believe this claim to be true, we do not know for certain due to lack of open communication. A large portion of this is reactionary to what we are seeing, and, unfortunately, what we are seeing leads to the belief that they are expanding their nuclear arsenal. While construction of new missile silos, development of a new type of nuclear submarine, and evidence of a fast-breeder reactor at Xiapu does support the claim, there are things to dispute. Warhead numbers are estimates, not exact. Infrastructure expansion could be a reflection of modernization, safety upgrades, or replacement of aging systems vs pure increase to stockpile size.
Again, overall, I believe this claim to be true, but we must keep in mind that this is largely reactionary due to things we are seeing via satellite imagery, not something we know to be 100% true.
Sources:
Buckley, Chris, and Agnes Chang. “Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape.” The New York Times, 15 Feb. 2026, www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/02/15/world/asia/china-nuclear.html.
Kuramitsu, Shizuka. “Pentagon Says Chinese Nuclear Arsenal Still Growing | Arms Control Association.” Armscontrol.org, 2025, www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing.
SIPRI. “Nuclear Risks Grow as New Arms Race Looms—New SIPRI Yearbook out Now.” SIPRI, 16 June 2025, www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/nuclear-risks-grow-new-arms-race-looms-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now.
Wikipedia Contributors. “Nuclear Weapons of China.” Wikipedia, Wikimedia Foundation, 17 Feb. 2026, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_of_China.
