S&P 500 a key predictor of the presidential race

Question

According to this article, Rich Johnson believes that the S&P 500 predicts the current party in office will stay in office if the index is higher and if the index is lower, the party previously in office will lose the election.

https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/2024-election/sp500-presidential-election-prediction/

Answer 1

While it has predicted many presidencies it still is not perfect. In the 2020 election NewsNation showed that, "Joe Biden beat Donald Trump despite a 2.3% increase in the S&P 500 in the three months before the election.".  Even thought it does have a 20 out of 24 success rate, I am still skeptical of this being a correct predictor of the next election. When you look at the table from LPL Financial it shows all the other correct and incorrect guess which shows its right most of the time but still can be wrong in regards to important elections so it makes it harder to believe. Forbes shows the marks of why they believe that the S&P 500 will be correct again including, "The S&P rose 0.6% to a new all-time closing high of 5,815 and the other leading U.S. index, the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, climbed 1% to a record close of 42,864.". So I guess we will wait and see what happens.