Kamala Harris is losing voters among Black and Latinx demographics.

Question

The article states "Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are essentially tied in new polling, as the Democratic presidential nominee loses her edge with Black and Latino voters." I was wondering if this was actually true, and if so, what the context is behind it?

Answer 1

In short, the claim above is true according to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll of 1,000 people (Suffolk University Poll) (USA Today Article Breakdown). According to the poll, Harris is leading by only 1% in a 45% lead over Donald Trump's 44%. Other smaller news stations in Delaware and Boston have also reported on the poll, lending to it's credibility (Delaware Online)(Boston25News). However, it is less obvious that the poll specifically showed a drop in Black/Latino voters. The poll is 67% White, 12.1% Black, and 11.7% Hispanic. However, it does not specify how many Black/Latino votes were for Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump. I'm not an expert in reading these kinds of statistical polls, so it's very possible that I'm missing something, or that there is a more in-depth version of the poll that USA Today/Fox News has access to. It is also worth noting that the majority of those polled (27.3%) were 50-64 years old, which statistically is more likely to include Donald Trump's supporters. In short, this claim is correct based on the evidence they present, but may not be completely representative of the country as a whole.

Comments

This is a quickly evolving topic and there are many angles. I found the following below which also noted that the claim is "overblown".

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/harris-black-men-voters-trump-polls-rcna175807
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-minority-voters-pennsylvania-1971328
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-are-democrats-losing-black-voters-party-kamala-harris-senate-working-class-b4e9156e

Answer 2

This headline is in fact TRUE. Although the article comes from Fox News, which is an extremely right-winged news media outlet, the information coming from the polls still remain accurate. The poll from USA Today/Suffolk University shows that Harris only has a lead by 1% over republican candidate, Donald Trump. After further research, according to as-coa.org, regarding the 2020 election, "Nationwide, Democrat Joe Biden got 66 percent support in national exit polls, on par with Hillary Clinton’s 65 percent in 2016. It was nevertheless a mixed bag: he performed 6 points better in California, for example, but 4 points worse in Nevada, where Latino men voted for Trump in particularly high numbers." So at the current rate of the 2024 polls, Trump has made a large gain in the Latino community, drawing away voters for democrat, Kamala Harris. And according to an NAACP poll regarding black voters, "one in four under 50 support Donald Trump over Kamala Harris." These shift in demographics have the ability to completely flip how we initially expected the election to play out. Given all this information, the Fox headline is correct, and Kamala is losing a large portion of her typical voter demographic.