Oregon Will See Wetter and Cooler Weather Conditions this Winter

Question

In the article I provided it states that Oregon will be cooler and wetter this winter. Is this stated weather pattern more extreme than past La Ninas due to climate change?

Comments

It seems like we are having all the extra rain and cold temps from the year of La Niña. But I think the article mentioned that La Niña usually influences trends but doesn't guarantee any major weather event based off of the previous years or climate change.

Answer 1

I believe the claim of "Oregon Will See Wetter and Cooler Weather Conditions this Winter'’ is accurate based on the facts of the case stating that El Nina will create a higher precipitation count as well as a colder temperature all around. Author Joni Auden Land  utilizes meteorologist Noah Alviz's work and the National Weather Service's Climate Outlook Center to strengthen her argument. Although one of the sources was drawn from the same exact website as the initial article and the other source is from a US Department of Commerce. This contradiction leaves me a little confused and hesitant about the truth in what Land writes.

Precipitation and cold temperatures are vital to the nature and greenery of what creates Oregon. In the past Oregon and specifically Portland received 5-6 inches of snow according to Land and Alviz. Alviz relates that La Nina based on past history has created this type of reaction but it isn’t inherently going to come true again. This lapse in confidence and truth further makes me believe that there is no hard proof of Oregon receiving a rougher winter season. The article Land provides originating from the same company states that the NOAA or National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center voices that La Nina has a 60% chance of surfacing by November's end. According to both opb.org articles and one I found on my own; Climate Hubbs of the Department of Agriculture; this is an extremely possible path for Oregon weather but it's nowhere near 100% accurate.

A reference to a past devastating storm of Oregon leaves me with concrete evidence of the possibility of a similar storm being possible once again. The facts of the claim mentions La Nina as a suitable option for occurrence of the brutal storm yet this article doesn't mention this at all. This becomes extremely confusing to me as to why La Nina was mentioned in the article and there was no secondary source to the experience of La Nina. This aforementioned storm caused the death of “at least” 15 people and created a declaration of emergency. A conversation of multiple first hand experiences scattered throughout Oregon was a daunting touch that portrayed a creepy and scary mood and theme to the quality of the article.  

To wrap up my thoughts when it comes to the accuracy of this claim I don’t believe there is enough hard evidence to promote and endorse this factcheck. Upon my own research with the Climate Hubbs of the Department of Agriculture I am justifiable convinced this winter here at Oregon will not be pleasant but, there is nothing to suggest it will be more intense then last year. 

Comments

This is an incredibly well put together response that was very easy to follow. I agree with the conclusion that you came to but would like to offer something else to consider. While meteorology has become a science that we have a great deal of confidence in, there is only so much we can say with certainty based on the tools at the disposal of those concerned with predicting the weather. Ultimately, no science is perfect, and there is a possibility that the prediction of wetter and cooler weather will not come to pass. Other than that small caveat, the plethora of research that you included was very well presented and easily convinced me to prepare to bundle up a bit more in the coming months.

---

Nice work on your fact-check. Please include source links to whatever information you cite going forward. Thanks!