Will Trump's tariff policy increase inflation?

Question

Economists say that Trump's proposal of tariffs will worsen the economy and increase inflation. Is this true?

Answer 1

Economists largely agree that Trump’s proposed tariffs would likely harm the U.S. economy by raising production costs, which could be passed to consumers and fuel inflation. Tariffs are seen as regressive, disproportionately impacting lower-income households, and may reduce GDP by disrupting imports and triggering trade retaliation that hurts U.S. exporters. While supporters argue that tariffs could boost domestic industries, economists warn the overall economic impact would likely be negative, with limited benefits for most consumers. So, most likely, the answer to your true or false questions is that it is true, the overall economy is likely to worsen under Trump’s proposal of tariffs. 

Here are the sources I used if you want to learn more: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/how-much-would-trumps-plans-deportations-tariffs-and-fed-damage-us

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work

Comments

I think you did a really solid job with this fact check. You were able to support your answer with general economic evidence that you then provided down below. You also went into depth about how these tariffs will be effecting our economy in more ways than benefiting which is super important to note. Overall super clear and strong response.

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This is an excellent factcheck -- you provided your sources, explained what supporters of tariffs believe and why most economists believe differently, allowing us to understand the article's claim and why some people might feel differently.

Answer 2

Economists say that Trump’s policy will worsen inflation; however, it can not be entirely certain if Trump’s policy will cause inflation as Trump has not entered his second term yet. Both authors of the article for the Associated Press, Paul Wiseman and Christopher Rugabar, are credible. They have been with the Associated Press for over ten years and have written numerous other articles on economics in the US. In addition, the Associated Press has been rated as a neutral news source with a high reliability rating. 

From the source of the article, I was able to find the interview where he speaks on the economic policy discussed in the article. The Trump quotes on economics primarily come from an interview he did with Bloomberg News. To focus back on the claim of tariffs, I found an explanation video from the Wall Street Journal (another credible source) that explains why economists do not like the way Trump is implementing tariffs because they found in their research that it would go back to consumers who would be paying for the new tariffs. In my additional research, I found that 16 Nobel Prized Economists signed a letter stating that Trump’s economy would increase inflation. Alongside that famous economist Joesph Stiglitz stated in an interview that he also has stated that Trump’s economic plans would increase inflation.

To conclude, the claim is true that economists have predicted Trump’s economic plan.

Sources:

Paul Wiseman Linkedin

Chris Rugaber Linkedin

AP News Reliability

WSJ Tariff

Trump Interview

Interview with Joseph Stiglitz 

16 Signed Letter from Nobel Prized Economist