Retail food prices in the United States are projected to rise in 2025 at a rate slightly faster than the historical 20-year average, with overall food prices expected to increase by 3.0 percent. This growth is driven in part by continuing supply chain pressures, changes in trade patterns, and fluctuations in weather and agricultural production that can affect key commodities. While food-at-home prices, which include grocery and supermarket purchases, are predicted to rise more slowly at 2.4 percent, food-away-from-home prices, such as those in restaurants and other foodservice establishments, are expected to increase by 3.9 percent. The faster growth in food-away-from-home prices reflects the higher costs of labor, preparation, and service associated with dining out compared to purchasing groceries.
The trends in 2025 are also influenced by recent historical patterns in food price changes. Between 2022 and 2024, food prices experienced elevated inflation due to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic’s lingering effects on supply chains, energy costs, and labor pressures. For example, retail beef and veal prices increased by 13.9 percent from August 2024 to August 2025, driven by tighter cattle supplies and strong consumer demand, while egg prices rose due to impacts from a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreak. Conversely, prices for some items, such as fresh vegetables, are predicted to remain largely unchanged in 2025 compared to 2024. Overall, the data suggest that while inflationary pressures continue to influence the U.S. food market, the impact varies across different types of food purchases and specific commodity categories.
