AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen

Question

An article by Jack Dunhill a Social Media Coordinator and Staff Writer for IFL Science, posted an article claiming that a "new" type of AI was able to detect 90% of crimes before they happen. The title of the article and claim happen to be misleading, essentially the AI doesn't detect crimes before they happen but uses data from past crimes in a 1,000-square-foot area of Chicago to predict when and where crimes are more likely to occur based on previous criminal data. Additionally, the "90% accuracy" they mention refers only to how well the AI predicts general crime hotspots and not exact events. The article also leaves out the important limitation of the fact that not all crimes are reported, which can affect the accuracy of its 90% prediction rate. So therefore, this AI doesn't detect crimes before they happen but instead predicts the likelihood of crimes occurring, giving police and other first responders a head start in responding to potential crime rather than stopping specific crimes before they occur.

Answer 1

After my research, I came to the conclusion that the claim of AI detecting 90% of crimes before they happen is exaggerated and misleading. AI cannot actually predict specific crimes in advance. Instead, it uses past data to estimate where crime is more likely to occur. My primary source is from IFLSCIENCE, "https://www.iflscience.com/ai-predicts-90-percent-of-crime-before-it-happens-creator-argues-it-wont-be-misused-65025", and this article explains that the AI system does not literally detect crimes before they happen, but instead analyzes past crime data to predict patterns. Studies have shown that predeictive policing tools use historical data to show trends, but not future specific crimes. They also highlight limitations in accuracy and bias. 

My secondary source that I found is from NYT, "Can Software Predict Crime? Maybe So, but No Better Than a Human" https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/computer-software-human-decisions.html. This source explains that predictive policing is controversial and often critizised because it reinforces existing biases in crime data. This aritcle also clarifies that these systems do not "predict crimes" in the way these headlines and claims suggest.

As for potential biases, the IFLSCIENCE article uses attention grabbing language to attract an auidence, and ends up exaggerating the capabilities of AI with detecting crime. 

Answer 2

The claim that a new AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen is misleading and not fully accurate. First, looking at the source, the article was written by Jack Dunhill for IFLScience, which is a popular science media site, but not a primary research publisher. This means the article is summarizing someone else’s work rather than presenting original research. When I looked for better coverage, I found that other reports and the original study explain that the AI does not actually predict specific crimes before they occur. Instead, it analyzes past crime data within a small geographic area to identify patterns and predict where crime is more likely to happen.

Tracing the claim back to its original context shows that the 90% accuracy refers only to predicting general crime hotspots, not individual crimes. This is a significant difference because predicting a higher-risk area is not the same as stopping or identifying a specific crime in advance. An important limitation left out of the article is that not all crimes are reported, which means the data the AI relies on is incomplete and could affect its accuracy. Overall, the AI is better understood as a tool for forecasting crime trends and helping allocate police resources, rather than a system that can detect or prevent crimes before they happen.

Answer 3

The claim, “AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen,” is not entirely false, but it is quite misleading. The AI model referenced in the IFL Science article can predict the likelihood of crime in specific areas based on historical data, but cannot stop individual crimes before they happen. It does not “detect” crimes in real time or stop them from occurring. When the claim states 90%, they are most likely referring to the model’s 90% accuracy in predicting general crime hotspots a week in advance, not in detecting specific crimes before they occur. It was tested across multiple US cities and demonstrated accuracy rates of 80-90% in predicting crime rates and locations, but that is different from predicting specific events or preventing crime. The original research came from the University of Chicago, which clarified that the tool is intended to highlight biases in policing data and provide police with a tool to allocate resources more effectively, not to predict or prevent future crimes (https://biologicalsciences.uchicago.edu/news/algorithm-predicts-crime-police-bias). 

In conclusion, the claim is sort of right but incredibly misleading and fails to explain the original idea behind its creation.

Answer 4

This is a mostly misleading claim. It can't identify specific future events but identify statisically anyalisis of the likelihood of certain events happening in a specific area. The 90% refers to the ability to predict the location and rate of reported crimes, and this is only in one week. It was created less with the goal of policing and more to show how police respond in certain areas and the biases in the justice system. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01372-0 This was a published work from Nature Human Behavior that is the foundational source. It shows that the 90% was predictions made a week in advance. Another source is  Algorithm predicts crime a week in advance, but reveals bias in police response, which shows the bias in the police department and states that unknown crimes are a known limitation for this simulation. 

The bias from the original source is that they want clickbait titles and things that will draw people to their website, so of course, they are going to exaggerate things. 

Answer 5

The headline is misleading. A real 2022 University of Chicago study did find that an AI model predicted crime locations with about 90% accuracy. But the headline distorts what that means — the tool predicts zones where crime is likely, not specific crimes or criminals. The study's own author warned it should NOT be used to direct police. The broader field of predictive policing has serious problems with racial bias and inconsistent results.

University of Chicago Press Release (2022)

The official summary of the real study behind the 90% claim. The lead researcher explicitly said the tool should not be used to send police to neighborhoods proactively.

Link: https://biologicalsciences.uchicago.edu/news/algorithm-predicts-crime-police-bias

University of Chicago — Researchers have an incentive to publicize their findings in a positive light. The press release may have oversimplified the statistics.

Brennan Center — A civil liberties advocacy group. Likely to emphasize harms of policing technology.

The 90% number is real — it comes from a legitimate, peer-reviewed study at the University of Chicago, published in a top journal in 2022. The model was tested in 8 U.S. cities and showed consistent results.

The 90% is a map-zone prediction, not catching individual criminals. The tool's own creators said don't use it to deploy police.

Other AI crime tools have accuracy as low as 0.6% in real-world use.

The claim was posted on News Detective, a student crowdsourcing platform. The article it references was written by Jack Dunhill at IFLScience.

I attempted to contact News Detective on Bluesky at @newsdetective.bsky.social to ask who submitted the claim and if they have a verdict.

Answer 6

Findings:

The post claims that AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen”. This post is mostly misleading. After looking into the original study, I found that the AI can't predict exact crimes, but AI can be used to look at data from past crimes to help make predictions about where crime will happen. The 90% accuracy is talking about AI's ability to predict the crime hotspots, but AI is not actually stopping the crimes. The headline is misleading and makes a claim without evidence.

Sources: Algorithm predicts crime a week in advance, but reveals bias in police response | Biological Sciences Division | The University of Chicago 

The article discusses that AI studied past crime data and patterns in Chicago to predict where crimes would happen within a certain location and time period. The researchers also mentioned concerns about bias in policing data.

As shootings soar, Chicago police use technology to predict crime | Reuters 

This article gave more context about using technology to make predictions in Chicago and explained how police departments have used similar technology before. It also talked about concerns about the effectiveness and bias in these systems. 

Potential Biases: The University of Chicago has the incentive to promote their research. Reuters is a website the usually reports current events/ controversies.  

Answer 7

The article was published by IFLScience and written by Jack Dunhill. IFLScience is a popular science media website that focuses on making scientific topics entertaining and easy to understand for general audiences. While it often summarizes real scientific studies, it is not a peer-reviewed academic journal. After looking for some more media source I found an article from The Washington Post, which explained that the AI predicts “hotspots” where crime is statistically more likely to happen rather than identifying specific crimes or criminals. The reporting also discussed ethical concerns such as racial bias and over-policing in predictive policing systems.The study was conducted by researchers from the University of Chicago Crime Lab and the university’s data science department. The researchers trained an AI model using historical crime records from Chicago. The city was divided into small geographic areas, and the system analyzed patterns of time and location from previously reported crimes. Overall I found that AI can predict crime, but the 90% is just misleading. The idea that AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen is not true in the literal sense. The AI in question does not predict specific crimes or identify exactly who will commit a crime in advance.

Answer 8

After looking into the claim that “AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen,” I found that it’s misleading. The original article makes it sound like AI can actually predict crimes before they happen, but that’s not really true. When I checked more current and reliable sources, I found that the AI system was actually trained using past crime data to predict where crimes are more likely to happen, not specific crimes or people. The “90% accuracy” only refers to predicting crime hotspots in certain areas, not stopping crimes before they happen. https://scholars.uky.edu/en/publications/event-level-prediction-of-urban-crime-reveals-a-signature-of-enfo

I also found that experts still have concerns about predictive policing because these systems rely on old police data, which can include bias and inaccurate reporting. Overall, the claim exaggerates what the AI can actually do. It predicts patterns and high-risk areas, but it cannot literally detect or prevent 90% of crimes before they happen. https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/algorithm-predict-future-crimes-90-accuracy-heres-why-creator-thinks-tech-wont-be-abused

Answer 9

After looking into the claim that “AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen,” I found that it’s misleading. The original article makes it sound like AI can actually predict crimes before they happen, but that’s not really true. When I checked more current and reliable sources, I found that the AI system was actually trained using past crime data to predict where crimes are more likely to happen, not specific crimes or people. The “90% accuracy” only refers to predicting crime hotspots in certain areas, not stopping crimes before they happen. https://scholars.uky.edu/en/publications/event-level-prediction-of-urban-crime-reveals-a-signature-of-enfo

I also found that experts still have concerns about predictive policing because these systems rely on old police data, which can include bias and inaccurate reporting. Overall, the claim exaggerates what the AI can actually do. It predicts patterns and high-risk areas, but it cannot literally detect or prevent 90% of crimes before they happen. https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/algorithm-predict-future-crimes-90-accuracy-heres-why-creator-thinks-tech-wont-be-abused

Answer 10

After looking into the claim that “AI can detect 90% of crimes before they happen,” I found that it’s misleading. The original article makes it sound like AI can actually predict crimes before they happen, but that’s not really true. When I checked more current and reliable sources, I found that the AI system was actually trained using past crime data to predict where crimes are more likely to happen, not specific crimes or people. The “90% accuracy” only refers to predicting crime hotspots in certain areas, not stopping crimes before they happen. https://scholars.uky.edu/en/publications/event-level-prediction-of-urban-crime-reveals-a-signature-of-enfo I also found that experts still have concerns about predictive policing because these systems rely on old police data, which can include bias and inaccurate reporting. Overall, the claim exaggerates what the AI can actually do. It predicts patterns and high-risk areas, but it cannot literally detect or prevent 90% of crimes before they happen. https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/algorithm-predict-future-crimes-90-accuracy-heres-why-creator-thinks-tech-wont-be-abused