Claim: The Economy is in A Recession

Question

Terms like "recession" and "inflation" have been in the news for a while. Even Jeff Bezos talked about the economic downturn and warned about a recession soon. The "GDP declined in the first half of the year" and has made slight improvement. Lack of GDP growth characterizes a recession. Are we already in an economic recession?

Comments

I have seen this in newspaper. Goldman Sachs predicted USA might avoid from recession in 2023.

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/outlook-2023-us-expected-to-escape-recession.html

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@Langjie Zhao thanks for commenting! In the future, please use the "answer" button rather than comment on the claim. By doing so, you'll be able to be upvoted and chosen as the best answer. As for the fact-check, don't forget to add a strong and clear explanation as well as a rating, such as "true, not misinformation," if you feel it's appropriate (other rating options are on the sidebar of this page).

Answer 1

In October of this year, AP News reported that the government stated that the U.S. is not currently in a recession. With that being said, AP News also states that this is near the highest recorded inflation in 40 years along with a 6-month constant economic decline, both of which point to a recession. 

https://apnews.com/article/is-us-economy-in-recession-8be54810a122a2f84f0f7b3329ab1c9e

Comments

Nice work including an explanation, a data point (re: highest recorded inflation in 40 years), and a source link. Don't forget to add a rating, such as "false, misinformation," if you feel it is appropriate. Other rating options can be found on the sidebar of this page.

Answer 2

I believe we are in an economic recession. Looking at the global economic background, the inflation rate is extremely high, and economic growth has slowdown. Global inflation is expected to rise to 8.8 percent in 2022, and global growth is expected to slow from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022, according to the Internation Monetary Fund.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022

Comments

Strong fact-checks rely on evidence, so it's best to say that "XXXX  media outlet or XXXXX organization stated that the U.S. is in an economic recession" rather than give your personal opinion (re: I believe we are in an economic recession). Also, don't forget to add a rating, such as "true, not misinformation," if you feel it is appropriate. Other rating options can be found on the sidebar of this page.

Answer 3

Surveys by CNBC and Forbes show around 56%-59% of adults believe we are currently in a recession. The United States is not currently in an economic recession. The belief the U.S faces a recession stems from the noticeable increase in inflation, currently at 2.44%. Residents may have faced hardships making ends meet in recent years, however the economy as a whole has grown. The article from Forbes states a few key facts, such as the U.S GDP growing by 3.1% after inflation (2022-2023), S&P 500 stock increasing 12%, and the unemployment rate being the lowest it’s been in years, 3.9%. Although inflation rate has made it harder for the average household, the United States is not in a recession.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/recession-2024-what-to-watch-how-to-prepare

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/59percent-of-americans-think-the-us-is-in-a-recession-report-finds.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/05/22/no-were-not-in-a-recession-but-heres-why-many-americans-feel-like-we-are/