Claim: The Chinese Spy Balloon will cause a war

Question

After the news about the eruption of the Chinese spy balloon, many people have said that war is going to begin because of it.    Then I see on Fox News (which is rumored to be a fake news source) that a war could potentially start. In my opinion, I usually don't believe in war rumors because they happen a lot and a war never happens. What do you think?

Answer 1

While this balloon was of Chinese property and was on American territory, there shouldn't be much concern over war starting relatively soon. Now that the balloon is down, it helps United States intelligence to understand what information the balloon could have gotten and how it is electronically configured, helping provide further information about China's intelligence as well. It's unlikely China would knowingly put themselves in a situation to sour their relationship with the US as Dave Shullman, senior director of the China Global Hub at the Atlantic Council explains. The beliefs on the situation also fall along party lines, so there are vastly different ideologies present within this situation. 

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/05/1154596301/whats-next-chinese-spy-balloon

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/what-is-up-with-this-chinese-spy-balloon.html

Comments

Nice work on your fact-check. You rated it as an opinion which is correct since typically, predictive claims cannot be fact-check because no one can tell the future.

Answer 2

When I first heard the news that the Chinese balloon was shot down, my first thoughts were also if a war could result from this event. I want to add further information on international law in this situation that occurred last week, as this law has been spread around social media and news outlets, making people more worried about the onset of war. 

I found an article from Jurist, an online news website that analyzes world events and news-worthy stories through a law lens. The article notes that while this situation was ongoing, the U.S, in this article U.S Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, and Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, all prominent U.S officials, commented on how China had gone against international law. 

https://www.jurist.org/news/2023/02/china-balloon-sparks-international-law-debate/

China's response through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was that overall, the U.S overreacted, violated international practice, and brought up history where the U.S has violated international law. From this article and the current time I am writing, it seems like the U.S and Chinese relations have been strained even more by this event; however, there is no evidence that a potential war is upon us relating to this incident. Although further development can occur, there is none as of now. 

https://www.npr.org/2023/02/05/1154596301/whats-next-chinese-spy-balloon

Rate: misinformation

Answer 3

This claim is simply exaggerated and misleading. It is no secret that US and Chinese relations have not been on the best of terms the past couple of years. However, a low tech spy balloon is not likely to cause an all out war between the two nations. 

In an article written by CNN reporter Stephen Collinson titled, "Why the Chinese balloon crisis could be a defining moment in the new Cold War," he states that "The Chinese balloon saga threatens to be a watershed moment in the world’s dangerous new superpower rivalry: For the first time, Americans experienced a tangible symbol of the national security challenge from Beijing.The craft, described by US intelligence as a surveillance balloon, presented a comparatively low-tech, modest security threat compared to the multi-layered espionage, economic, cyber, military and geopolitical rivalry escalating every day."

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/06/politics/us-china-new-cold-war-spy-balloon/index.html 

Simply put, there are more serious violations that could lead to war between the two nations in the future. The spy balloon was an violation of a nations sovereignty, but the US will not declare war because of this violation. The most serious threat that will lead to the escalation of war is if China goes through with its plans to invade Taiwan. In an article written by Rachel Nostrant titled, "US troops will defend Taiwan if China invades, Biden says" she states that "it is the first time [Biden] has made it clear that U.S. forces would be involved in such a circumstance."

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/09/19/us-troops-will-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades-biden-says/

Answer 4

It seems that hard claims about balloons having a cause and effect relationship with war, such as the one made in this Fox News article, are purely speculative and misleading.  However, there is a lot of information about both sides of this topic available.  A The Guardian article mentions that China insists that the balloon was being used for meteorological uses.  This article also mentions that the People's Liberation Army Daily, the newspaper for the Chinese People's Liberation Army, has cited the balloons former military uses, which include surveillance, communications, and the guiding of missiles.  It is important to note that this does not mean that that is what the balloon was being used for, and does not have any direct correlation between the events and a war, and is instead solely providing context for the current situation.  An article from Time Magazine cites James Char, an international studies research fellow, who says, "But how serious is [this threat]? I think it’s pretty clear: if it’s serious enough, I’m sure something more drastic would have been done by the U.S. establishment.”

Ultimately, there is not much evidence suggesting a direct cause and effect relationship between spy balloons and war, and I'm sure more information will be released as it is made available.  Until then, this claim made by Fox News is misleading and speculative.  

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/china-spy-balloons-surveillance-high-altitude 

https://time.com/6252673/chinese-spy-balloon-satellite/