AI will take a large share of jobs in America by 2035

Question

McKinsey & Company projects that automation, particularly via generative AI — could handle up to 30 % of current work hours by 2030. This claim is true with a great amount of studies supporting it. The fact is that generative AI can handle language, data processing, pattern recognition and even creative tasks. This leads to a large expansion within the range of automatable work, as this goes beyond just routine manual tasks. McKinsey notes that tasks involving expertise, interaction, documentation and supervision were once thought to be safe but now all fall under the scope of AI capability. For workers, this suggests that increasing importance of adaptability and lifelong learning are going to be necessary in standing out within the workforce. On the other hand, employers will be forced to redesign jobs and workflows by integrating the impact of AI in order to manage the transition smoothly.

Answer 1

Think of this as your investigation log. Answer each question to explain what you discovered and how you got there.

1. Write a brief overall summary of your findings.
2. What primary sources did you find (e.g., transcripts, videos of politician speeches, tweets from public figures, scientific studies)? For each source, write at least one or two sentences explaining what you learned. Include all links.
3. What secondary sources did you find (e.g., newspapers, magazines)? Only use secondary sources if sufficient primary sources are not available. For each source, write at least one or two sentences explaining what you learned. Include all links.
4. What potential biases or interests might each of your sources have?
5. What evidence supports the claim you are fact-checking?
6. What evidence undermines the claim you are fact-checking?
7. What happened when you tried contacting the person or group who made the original claim? (Always try to contact them—it’s okay if you don’t get a reply. For example, if the claim is that the president said something, try reaching out to the administration. If it was a Bluesky user, message that user on Bluesky.)

Comments

There is strong research showing that a significant share of jobs are exposed to AI or automation by 2030 to 2035, in the US and globally. Here is evidence that supports this. Forbes (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2025/04/25/the-jobs-that-will-fall-first-as-ai-takes-over-the-workplace/) states that "A McKinsey report projects that by 2030, 30% of current U.S. jobs could be automated, with 60% significantly altered by AI tools. Goldman Sachs predicts up that to 50% of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, driven by generative AI and robotics." More research from The International Monetary Fund states that AI “will affect almost 40 % of jobs around the world, replacing some and complementing others.” However, This means a large portion of American workers will see their jobs either transformed or replaced by ai, particularly in sectors like customer service, data entry, and manufacturing. Economists emphasize that while AI will eliminate certain repetitive or low skill jobs, it will also create new roles in areas such as machine learning operations, data analysis, cybersecurity, and AI maintenance. This transition won’t be even though, workers without access to retraining or technical education could face job loss or wage pressure. By 2035, experts predict that tens of millions of American workers will need to switch occupations due to AI work in the labor market.

Answer 2

It seems many economists are pretty sure of AI's ability to make a sizable entry into global business by the start of the next decade. Covid started any interesting trend that saw the employment rate in many fields drop, especially those in entry-level, service fields. This started a trend that led many economists to the conclusion that employment rates and need for those positions to be filled by people will continue to dwindle until the end of the decade. A 2025 Forbes article by Jack Kelly (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2025/04/25/the-jobs-that-will-fall-first-as-ai-takes-over-the-workplace/) notes the findings of a 2024 study by the Institute for Public Policy research stating "60% of current U.S jobs could be automated", and goes on to say: "These roles, requiring repetitive data processing, face near-term obsolescence as AI’s accuracy and scalability improve. Bookkeeping, financial modeling, and basic data analysis are highly vulnerable." 

While speculations beyond 2035 vary, it is safe to say that the industry sees a near future for the business world where AI is virtually unavoidable.

Answer 3

Nextford University said that instead of AI replacing jobs, it will create more opportunities for people. “AI has the profound impact to deliver additional global economic activity of around $13 trillion in the foreseeable future and by 2030,” Nexford says, sharing a more positive side of AI that I personally don't usually see. Now, this might be a biased website, and they choose to talk about a lot of the positive effects that it’s technology will have on our industries and not so much our society’s individuals, but they also seem to think that it will have a positive impact on the job industry. 

Hypotenuse AI says that “AI is expected to replace 2.4 million US jobs by 2030,” which is a large share, but since “large” is such a vague word here, this is up for interpretation. This is a website that is based on the use of ai, so the bias of this site probably plays a very big factor in their perspective on this topic.

I think that yes, AI will take a large share of jobs in America by 2035, but because the word large is not defined by a statistic, this claim could be misconstrued, but overall I do think in 10 years this claim will ring true.

Answer 4

The student’s initial claim was: “AI will take a large share of jobs in America by 2035”. In the description, they point out an important statistic sharing, “generative AI — could handle up to 30% of current work hours by 2030.” If true, this would take up a significant portion of today’s jobs in the next 5 years. The information supporting this claim comes from McKinsey, a managing and consulting company for operations in organizations. When digging deeper in the article, I found that the “30%” claim was stated and true, meaning McKinsey estimates a third of jobs to be taken or assisted by AI. This would require tons of human labor adaptation, meaning many will undergo several career changes in the next couple of years. An article from MIT’s Management School adds a different perspective affirming, “‘Unemployment is a health hazard,’ said Kelly. ‘We have known that since the 1920s.’ Job instability can lead to stress, anxiety, and lower productivity, ultimately harming both workers and businesses.” This point of view shares that this issue goes beyond the AI job crisis and should worry many in the next five to ten years.

McKinsey conducted their own study, surveying executives who reported rising demand in technological and cognitive skills. What they found is that “Advanced IT”, “Leadership”, and “Creativity” are among the fastest growing skills today. What I found most interesting in this graph is how a good amount of the skills growing are either social or technological. I assume so much has changed since this study was conducted and written in 2024.

https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond?

Because McKinsey is a business focused consulting firm, they may look at AI through a more positive lens. They may have some bias towards increased productivity and opportunities for companies to grow. This has the ability to shift focus from the population in search of jobs and instead highlights the companies in charge of hiring due to the changes.

6. What evidence supports the claim you are fact-checking?

“By 2030, in a midpoint adoption scenario, up to 30 percent of current hours worked could be automated, accelerated by generative AI (gen AI).”

“By 2030, Europe could require up to 12 million occupational transitions, double the prepandemic pace.”

https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond?

6. What evidence undermines the claim you are fact-checking?

“Choices made today could revive productivity growth while creating better societal outcomes.”

“Demand for healthcare and STEM roles could grow, while demand for office support and customer service roles could decline.”

https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/a-new-future-of-work-the-race-to-deploy-ai-and-raise-skills-in-europe-and-beyond?

Answer 5

The original claim states that McKinsey & Company argues automation, especially from generative AI, could take over up to 30% of current work hours by 2030. After reviewing this information, I believe the claim is mostly true. I  reviewed different sources to fact-check this claim.I started off by gouing over the original source.I found that McKinsey is a trusted and reliable research company that studies how technology and the economy are changing. I found additional sources to support this claim. The first is an article by Forbes, which explains how AI is already replacing jobs that involve simple tasks like scheduling, customer service, and data entry. This shows how AI is already taking over certain types of work. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2025/04/25/the-jobs-that-will-fall-first-as-ai-takes-over-the-workplace/ 

Another article by CNBC discusses how AI is beginning to take over white-collar jobs and notes that there is still “much more in the tank,” emphasizing that AI’s expansion in the workplace is ongoing and could soon include professional roles. Both of these sources show that automation is spreading quickly and starting to replace jobs, supporting McKinsey’s original claim. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/ai-taking-white-collar-jobs-economists-warn-much-more-in-the-tank.html

Forbes and CNBC are well established news organizations that are well known for  reporting and maintaining credibility by citing reputable sources.After looking into other sources I believe that the original cited source's argument about AI and automation is mostly accurate and is causing a major change in the traditional workplace setting.

Answer 6

After researching multiple different sources on this topic the claim appears to be true.  According to McKinsey Global Institute there is a projected 30% of current work hours that could be taken up by generative AI by the time we get to 2030.  Further statements such as what generative AI can handle are also supported by other sources such as Nexford University that confirm the claims that AI can handle things such as language, data processing, pattern recognition and more.  They go on to mention the importance of always being able to learn and adapt especially in our current environment where things are drastically changing very rapidly.  The final section of claims about employers and owners choosing how these AI changes will be implemented is also true which MIT talks about in detail, pointing out how current businesses implement AI and how this may grow and change in the future.

Conclusion:  The claims in this post prove to be true although speculative.  AI does have the capabilities talked about and should advance even more in that time but it does not mean that every company will end up implementing these features.