Kennedy for President in 2024, likely or not?

Question

Since neither Biden or Trump are likely to become President in 2024, is Robert Kennedy, Jr., likely to become the next US President?

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4313314-why-neither-biden-nor-trump-will-be-the-next-president/

Comments

The headline of this article "Why neither Biden nor Trump will be the next president" is very misleading because it argues there is not a chance of either candidate receiving enough votes to win the 2024 election, which is false. Statistically there may be a decreased chance for Trump and Biden to win compared to Robert Kennedy Jr. (democrat), but that does not mean Kennedy will succeed. Additionally, "The Hill" who published this article was established by a democrat and leans more to the left despite its supposed non-partisan coverage.

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Claims are best worded as statements rather than questions. Example: Robert Kennedy Jr. is likely to become president in 2024.

Answer 1

Politics is a realm of society where opinions where anything and everything is primarily opinionated. In this case, The Hill's article is noticeably opinionated, presenting key factors regarding Robert Kennedy's chances of becoming our next president.

To clarify, the claim that "neither Biden nor Trump are likely to become President in 2024" is very misleading and requires fact-checking. Various polls, including one by the Wall Street Journal, indicate that a significant number of Americans view both Trump and Biden negatively. However, this doesn't automatically translate to support for Kennedy. Only 1/5 of Americans express willingness to vote for a third-party candidate, but this claim needs further validation. A recent RealClearPolitics poll shows Trump with 30%, Biden with 29%, and Kennedy trailing far behind at 18%. It's important to also consider our nation's history of elections: in our 247-year history and 46 presidential elections, an independent candidate has never won.

Considering these two articles, recent polling, and historical patterns—where history often repeats itself—the evidence suggests that Robert Kennedy Jr. is unlikely to become the next U.S. president.

https://www.wsj.com/story/rfk-jr-isnt-trump-or-biden-is-that-enough-for-voters-77dff872

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden_vs_kennedy-8272.html 

Comments

This is a very good example of fact checking. You gave information about what makes the statement false. The addition of extra sources to back up the information is great, it gives me and others the opportunity to do more research on the topic. The use of statistics int he statement is also very strong.

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Both sources utilized incorporate statistics to counter the claim. As stated, the website claiming neither Biden nor Trump are running is misleading. Although Robert F. Kennedy is running, he is running independently. From the sources, we can determine that Robert F. Kennedy is nowhere near the favorite. Furthermore, the independent candidate has never won an election in the country's history. Because of these statistics and facts from the sources, we can deem Kennedy as an unlikely future president.

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I think this a very well done factcheck. I liked that you started by saying that politics in general are very opinionated, which can cause misleading headlines and claims. This is an important aspect to understand when checking news sources and intaking information. The rest of the factcheck is concise and well thought out.

Answer 2

This article isn't the best evidence to claim that Robert Kennedy Jr, will be the next president. Not only is the article an opinion piece, but it also includes claims that have no evidence behind them. In truth, there are a lot of factors in the upcoming 2024 election that have made it a very close race. These factors make it hard to predict the result. However, this article from the New York Times lists the obstacles that Robert Kennedy Jr would face in his campaign. It is too early as well for any accurate or credible polls to see or is predicted to win. The article by CNN details the elements that could affect this race. Overall I think this claim is false because there is not enough information to prove it is correct. 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/politics/2024-tipping-point-races-analysis/index.html 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/09/us/politics/robert-f-kennedy-jr-independent.html

Comments

I like that you pointed out that the article is an opinion piece, which is biased and untrustworthy. It's definitely accurate that there are a lot of factors contributing to the upcoming election, making it very hard to predict the result.